2. 1. The Market
| Email marketing software market (2025) | $1.7–$12.9B (estimates vary by scope) |
|---|---|
| Projected growth | 10–16% CAGR through 2030–2035 |
| Mailchimp market share | ~67% of email marketing (the gorilla) |
| Newsletter-specific platforms | Substack, beehiiv, Kit, Ghost, Buttondown, MailerLite, etc. |
| Key driver | Creator economy + first-party data (cookies dying) + social media fatigue |
The market splits into two distinct segments:
- Email marketing platforms (broad)
- Mailchimp, Brevo, ActiveCampaign, HubSpot. Serve businesses doing email campaigns, automations, CRM, e-commerce. Not newsletter-focused.
- Newsletter-first platforms (our focus)
- Substack, beehiiv, Kit, Ghost, Buttondown. Built specifically for creators, writers, and publishers who want to build an audience via email. This is the interesting segment.
3. 2. The Players
Substack
- Model
- Free to publish. Takes 10% of paid subscriber revenue + Stripe fees (~3%). Total creator cost: 13–16% of income.
- Scale
- 40,000+ paying creators. 1M+ paid subscribers across the platform. Monthly subscription revenue exceeding $500M across all creators. Valued at $700–800M.
- Features
- Newsletter + blog, paid subscriptions, Substack Notes (social feed), podcast hosting, community features, network effects (recommendations). Minimal customization by design.
- Strengths
- Network effects. Substack’s recommendation engine and Notes feed drive organic discovery. Free to start. Simplest onboarding. Strong brand among writers.
- Weaknesses
-
- 10% fee — the most expensive platform at scale. A creator earning $100K/year pays $10K+ to Substack.
- Content moderation controversy — ~3,000 creators left in 2025 over refusal to remove extremist content.
- Pivot to social — hard push toward Notes and the Substack App, turning readers into social media consumers rather than subscribers.
- No advertising support — explicitly won’t support ad-based monetization, limiting creators who want sponsorship revenue.
- Poor support — customer support reduced to a bot. Creators serve as “one-person IT department” for reader account issues.
- Limited customization — minimal branding, no custom domains on free tier, locked design.
beehiiv
- Model
- SaaS subscription. Free (2,500 subs), Scale ($49/mo), Max ($109/mo). 0% cut of paid subscriptions. Also runs an ad network (Boost) that generates platform revenue.
- Scale
- $30M ARR (June 2025), up from $3M in June 2023. 90,000 customers. Sends ~3B emails/month. Raised $49.7M total. Valued at ~$192M.
- Revenue split
- $20M from software subscriptions + $10M from ads/boosts. 2:1 ratio holding steady.
- Features
- Newsletter + website builder, paid subscriptions (0% cut), native ad network, referral programs, A/B testing, automations, AI tools, digital product sales, podcast hosting. Expanding into “OS for the content economy.”
- Strengths
- Fastest-growing platform. Best growth tools (referral system, ad network, boosts). 0% subscription cut. Most feature-rich. Median time to first dollar: 66 days for new newsletters in 2025.
- Weaknesses
- Expanding so fast it risks becoming bloated. VC-funded ($49.7M) — needs to grow into valuation. Free tier is limited. No self-hosting option.
Kit (formerly ConvertKit)
- Model
- SaaS subscription. Free (10,000 subs, limited features), Creator ($33/mo at 1K subs), Creator Pro ($66/mo). Revenue from subscriptions only.
- Scale
- $43.8M ARR (2024). 49,000 customers. 149 employees. Bootstrapped — $0 raised. 99.5% net dollar retention.
- Features
- Email marketing + automations, landing pages, forms, Creator Network (cross-promotion), paid subscriptions, App Store (Canva, Shopify, Gumroad integrations), subscriber scoring, referral system.
- Strengths
- Bootstrapped and profitable. Best automation/sequence builder. Creator Network for organic growth. App Store ecosystem (Shopify model). Strong creator community. Generous free tier (10K subs).
- Weaknesses
- Prices increased significantly (Creator from $15 to $33/mo). Not newsletter-first — more email marketing tool that added newsletter features. Website/blog capabilities weaker than Ghost or beehiiv. Rebrand from ConvertKit to Kit caused confusion.
Ghost
- Model
- Open source (self-host free) + managed hosting (Ghost Pro). Starter $18/mo, Creator $29/mo, Business $199/mo. 0% platform fee on subscriptions. Non-profit foundation.
- Scale
- ~18,000 active Ghost Pro licensees. Unknown self-hosted count. Funded entirely by users — no VC, no investors.
- Features
- CMS + newsletter + membership platform. Full blog/website with themes. SEO-optimized. Native analytics. ActivityPub support (decentralized publishing). Custom themes. Stripe integration. API access.
- Strengths
- Open source. Self-hostable. 0% platform fee. Best SEO. Best for long-form publishing. Full ownership of content and subscriber data. Independent non-profit. ActivityPub/fediverse support.
- Weaknesses
- Costs money from day one (no free tier on Ghost Pro). Self-hosting requires technical skill. No built-in network effects or discovery. No ad network. Smaller community than Substack or beehiiv. Email features less polished than dedicated ESPs.
Buttondown
- Model
- SaaS subscription. Free (up to 1,000 subs), then $9/mo + $5 per 1,000 additional subs. 0% cut of paid subscriptions. Bootstrapped — $0 raised.
- Scale
- $392K revenue (2024), up from $180K in 2023. 250+ customers. Solo founder (Justin Duke, ex-Stripe).
- Features
- Minimalist newsletter platform. Markdown editor. Tags, segmentation, surveys, RSS-to-email, API, Zapier integration, paid subscriptions via Stripe, custom domains, white-labeling.
- Strengths
- Minimalist — does one thing well. Bootstrapped and profitable. Developer-friendly (API-first, Markdown). No platform fee on subscriptions. Privacy-focused. Low price point.
- Weaknesses
- Tiny ($392K revenue). Missing features: no automations, no A/B testing, limited growth tools. Solo founder risk. No network effects or discovery.
Mailchimp (Intuit)
- Model
- SaaS subscription. Free (1,500 subs), plans from $13 to $350+/mo. Acquired by Intuit for $12B (2021).
- Scale
- ~67% email marketing market share. Sends billions of emails. The incumbent gorilla.
- Positioning
- Broad email marketing + e-commerce + CRM. Not newsletter-focused — newsletters are one feature among many. Increasingly complex and expensive. The tool businesses graduate from, not to.
MailerLite
- Model
- SaaS subscription. Free (1,000 subs, 12K emails/mo), paid from $10/mo. Bootstrapped from Lithuania.
- Scale
- $12M revenue (2022). 1.2M customers. Acquired by Vercom for $90M (2022), then by cyber_Folks (2025).
- Positioning
- Budget-friendly email marketing. Ease-of-use award winner 3 years running. Good for small creators and businesses who want simple, cheap email. Not a newsletter platform per se — more a budget Mailchimp alternative.
4. 3. Comparison Matrix
| Platform | Revenue/ARR | Funding | Free Tier | Platform Fee | Self-Host | Open Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Substack | ~$50M+ (est.) | VC ($86M+) | Unlimited subs | 10% | No | No |
| beehiiv | $30M | VC ($49.7M) | 2,500 subs | 0% | No | No |
| Kit | $43.8M | Bootstrapped | 10,000 subs | 0% | No | No |
| Ghost | Undisclosed | User-funded | No (self-host only) | 0% | Yes | Yes |
| Buttondown | $392K | Bootstrapped | 1,000 subs | 0% | No | No |
| MailerLite | $12M | Bootstrapped (acquired $90M) | 1,000 subs | 0% | No | No |
| Mailchimp | $800M+ | Bootstrapped (acquired $12B) | 1,500 subs | 0% | No | No |
Feature Comparison
| Feature | Substack | beehiiv | Kit | Ghost | Buttondown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paid subscriptions | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Ad network | No | Yes | No | No | No |
| Referral program | No | Yes | Yes | No | No |
| Automations | No | Yes | Yes (best) | Basic | No |
| A/B testing | No | Yes | Yes | No | No |
| Custom domain | Paid | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Blog/website | Basic | Yes | Basic | Yes (best) | No |
| SEO | Limited | Good | Limited | Best | N/A |
| Network/discovery | Yes (best) | Yes (Boosts) | Yes (Creator Network) | No | No |
| API | Limited | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Markdown support | No | No | No | Yes | Yes (native) |
| Open source | No | No | No | Yes | No |
5. 4. Business Models
There are fundamentally three ways newsletter platforms make money:
- 1. Revenue share (Substack model)
-
Free to use, 10% cut of paid subscriptions. Aligns platform incentives with creator success.
But becomes extremely expensive at scale: a creator earning $500K/year pays $50K+ to Substack.
This is why creators leave once they’re successful enough to afford an alternative.
The trap: Substack subsidizes small creators (free hosting) to attract the big ones who generate the real revenue. It’s a power-law business — a few hundred top creators fund the entire platform. - 2. SaaS subscription (beehiiv, Kit, Ghost, MailerLite)
-
Monthly fee based on subscriber count or features. Predictable for creators. No cut of subscription
revenue. Scales linearly with subscriber count.
The advantage: creators keep 100% of their earnings (minus Stripe). The platform makes money whether the creator monetizes or not.
The challenge: higher barrier to entry (costs money from day one), harder to attract creators who haven’t monetized yet. - 3. Ad network (beehiiv’s hybrid)
-
beehiiv uniquely runs its own ad network alongside SaaS subscriptions. Creators can monetize through
beehiiv’s ad marketplace without having their own sponsors. beehiiv takes a cut of ad revenue.
This generates $10M/year — a third of beehiiv’s total revenue.
Why this matters: it solves the cold-start problem. New creators can earn from ads immediately (median 66 days to first dollar), even without paid subscribers. This is beehiiv’s real competitive advantage over Kit and Ghost.
6. 5. Creator Pain Points
- Platform tax is brutal at scale. Substack’s 10% fee means successful creators are paying tens of thousands per year for what is essentially email delivery + a blog. ~3,000 creators left Substack in 2025, with most citing the fee.
- Vendor lock-in is real. Moving from Substack means losing your archive URLs, recommendation network placement, and Notes following. Substack makes it easy to import but hard to export (no redirect support, broken URLs, lost SEO).
- Platforms keep expanding scope. beehiiv is becoming an “OS for the content economy” (e-commerce, podcast hosting, websites, digital products). Kit added an App Store. Substack added Notes. Creators wanted a newsletter tool; they got a platform trying to be everything.
- Deliverability is a black box. Email deliverability depends on IP reputation, domain authentication, content filtering, and ISP relationships. Creators can’t see or control any of this. When emails land in spam, they don’t know why and the platform often can’t help.
- Pricing scales with subscriber count, not value. A creator with 50,000 free subscribers and $0 revenue pays the same as a creator with 50,000 paid subscribers earning $250K/year. Subscriber-based pricing penalizes audience building.
- No portable identity. You can export your email list, but you can’t export your brand, URLs, SEO authority, or audience relationship. Switching platforms means starting over on everything except the raw subscriber list.
- Content moderation is politically charged. Substack’s refusal to moderate extremist content drove creators away. But any moderation stance will alienate some segment of creators. Platforms that take a strong editorial position risk exodus; platforms that don’t risk being associated with harmful content.
- Support is disappearing. Substack reduced support to a bot. Mailchimp’s support has degraded post-Intuit. As platforms scale, individual creator support becomes a cost center, not a feature.
7. 6. Adjacent Players
These aren’t direct competitors but they shape the market:
- Resend (resend.com)
- “The Stripe for email.” Transactional email API for developers. $21.5M raised (YC W23). 400K users. Not a newsletter platform, but relevant because it proves there’s a market for developer-grade email infrastructure. A newsletter platform built on top of Resend-quality infrastructure would be compelling.
- Brevo (formerly Sendinblue, brevo.com)
- Email + SMS + CRM + marketing automation. From $9/mo. Pricing based on emails sent, not subscribers (unique model). Broad marketing platform, not newsletter-focused, but cheap and capable.
- ActiveCampaign
- Advanced automation and CRM. From $15/mo. The most powerful automation system in the category. Used by businesses, not individual creators. Represents the “enterprise” end of the market.
- HEY (37signals) (hey.com)
- Email client, not a sending platform. But relevant because DHH and Jason Fried built “The Feed” — a dedicated newsletter reading experience that treats newsletters as a browsable, casual newsfeed rather than inbox clutter. This signals how newsletters should feel for readers, and hints at how 37signals thinks about email products.
- Patreon
- Membership platform. Increasingly competing with Substack for creator subscriptions. Top Substack writers (Anne Helen Petersen, Lyz Lenz) moved to Patreon in 2025. Patreon offers more monetization flexibility (tiers, merchandise, community) but weaker email/newsletter features.
8. 7. Market Trends
- 1. Substack exodus is creating a switching wave
- ~3,000 creators left Substack in 2025 (mostly to beehiiv and Ghost). The 10% fee, content moderation controversy, and pivot to social are driving churn. This is a one-time acquisition opportunity for competitors.
- 2. Platforms are expanding into everything
- beehiiv added e-commerce, podcast hosting, and website building. Kit launched an App Store. Ghost added ActivityPub. Every platform is trying to become “the everything platform for creators.” This creates bloat and opens a gap for a focused, simple tool.
- 3. First-party data makes newsletters more valuable
- Third-party cookies are dying. Social media algorithms are unpredictable. An email list is the only audience channel you truly own. This structural trend drives long-term demand for newsletter platforms.
- 4. AI is commoditizing content creation
- Every platform is adding AI writing assistants. AI-generated newsletters are proliferating. This increases supply of newsletters and puts pressure on low-effort content. Original voice and expertise become the only durable differentiator for creators — and for platforms that serve them.
- 5. The bootstrapped players are winning
- Kit ($43.8M, bootstrapped), Buttondown ($392K, bootstrapped), MailerLite ($12M, bootstrapped before acquisition), Ghost (user-funded) — the profitable, independent players are outperforming on sustainability. Mailchimp was bootstrapped to $800M revenue before selling for $12B. The VC-funded players (beehiiv, Substack) still need to prove long-term profitability.
- 6. Creator-platform power dynamics are shifting
- Creators are increasingly aware that platforms extract value. The “own your audience” movement favors platforms that offer data portability, custom domains, open APIs, and no platform tax. Self-hosting (Ghost) and developer-friendly tools (Buttondown) are gaining credibility.
9. 8. The DHH Approach
What would a newsletter platform look like if built by 37signals? The DHH/Jason Fried philosophy applied to this market:
Core Principles
- 1. Profitable from day one
- No free tier that hemorrhages money. No VC subsidy. Charge from day one, even if it’s $9/month. Buttondown proves this works — $392K revenue, bootstrapped, profitable. Ghost proves it at scale — funded entirely by users. The free tier is a trap: it attracts freeloaders and creates a business that depends on converting 2% of users into paying customers.
- 2. Opinionated, not flexible
- Don’t build what every creator wants. Build what one type of creator needs. HEY didn’t try to please every email user — it had a philosophy. A DHH newsletter platform would say: “This is how newsletters should work. If you disagree, use something else.”
- 3. Small team, forever
- 37signals runs Basecamp, HEY, and ONCE with ~80 people. Buttondown runs a growing newsletter platform with one person. A newsletter platform doesn’t need 200 employees. It needs 5–15 people who ship fast and own their decisions.
- 4. No platform tax
- 0% cut of creator revenue. Charge for the software, not the success. This is the single strongest positioning statement against Substack. “We charge you $29/month. We don’t take 10% of your income. Your success is yours.”
- 5. You own your data
- Full data portability. Export everything: subscribers, content, analytics, URLs. Custom domains from day one. No lock-in. The 37signals “ONCE” product line is literally about owning your software. A newsletter platform should let you own your audience the same way.
- 6. No ad network, no marketplace
- beehiiv’s ad network is clever but it makes beehiiv a media company, not a software company. A DHH approach would say: we sell software. You decide how to monetize. We don’t insert ourselves between you and your revenue.
- 7. Simple pricing
- One or two plans. No per-subscriber pricing that punishes audience growth. No enterprise tier. No “contact sales.” Like Basecamp: one price, all features, no per-seat scaling. Example: $29/mo for everything, unlimited subscribers, unlimited emails.
What DHH Would NOT Build
- A social network (Substack Notes)
- An ad network (beehiiv Boost)
- An app store (Kit)
- A content marketplace
- AI writing assistants
- Podcast hosting
- E-commerce features
- A recommendation algorithm
Every feature on that list is a feature another platform added to justify their valuation or retain creators who would otherwise leave. A DHH product would be ruthlessly simple: write an email, send it to your list, let people pay you if they want to. That’s it.
10. 9. Attack Strategies
Strategy 1: The “ONCE” Newsletter — Self-Hosted, Buy Once
37signals launched ONCE: pay once, own forever, self-host. Apply this to newsletters. A self-hosted newsletter platform you buy for $299 once. Install on your own server (or a $5/mo VPS). Send via your own domain through Amazon SES ($0.10/1,000 emails) or Resend. Own everything forever.
Target: developers and technical creators who value ownership and have the skills to self-host.
Economics: At $299/sale with minimal ongoing costs, you need 3,500 sales to hit $1M revenue. Ghost proves self-hosted newsletter software has a market. The difference: Ghost is a CMS that added newsletters. This would be a newsletter tool that does one thing perfectly.
Risk: small addressable market. Most creators can’t or won’t self-host.
Strategy 2: The Anti-Substack — Flat Price, No Tax, No Network
$29/month. Unlimited subscribers. Unlimited emails. 0% platform fee. No social features. No algorithm. No “discovery.” Just a beautiful, fast, reliable newsletter tool with great deliverability.
Position directly against Substack: “Substack takes 10% of your income. We charge $29/month. At $3,500/year in subscription revenue, we’re already cheaper. At $100K/year, you save $9,652.”
Target: creators earning $5K–$500K/year from paid newsletters who want to stop paying the Substack tax. The ~3,000 creators who left Substack in 2025 are the initial beachhead.
Economics: At $29/mo, you need 2,900 paying creators to hit $1M ARR. Buttondown proves this model works at $392K with 250 customers. The question is whether you can reach 3,000–10,000 customers without VC marketing spend.
Strategy 3: The Developer Newsletter Platform
Resend proved developers will pay for email infrastructure with great DX. Build the “Resend for newsletters”: API-first, Markdown-native, Git-based workflow, CLI tools, TypeScript SDK, webhook integrations. Newsletter-as-code.
Buttondown is the closest to this but it’s a solo founder doing $392K. There’s room for a more polished, better-funded version of the same idea.
Target: developers and technical writers. Smaller market but extremely high willingness to pay and strong word-of-mouth.
Strategy 4: The European/Non-English Newsletter Platform
Every platform listed above is US-based and English-first. Newsletter culture is exploding in France, Germany, Spain, Brazil, and Japan but the platforms serving those markets are poor localizations of English tools. Build a newsletter platform native to a non-English market with:
- Native language UI and support
- Local payment methods (not just Stripe)
- GDPR compliance baked in (not bolted on)
- Local email deliverability expertise (ISP relationships differ by country)
- Cultural understanding of how newsletters work in that market
Target: French, German, or Spanish creators. Market is large and underserved.
Strategy 5: The B2B Newsletter Platform
Every platform above targets individual creators. But the biggest newsletter businesses are B2B media companies (Industry Dive: $100M, Morning Brew: $70M, Axios: $100M+). They all outgrew consumer newsletter platforms and built custom infrastructure.
Build a newsletter platform for teams running multi-vertical B2B media businesses: multi-newsletter management, editorial workflows, sponsor/ad management, revenue reporting per publication, contributor permissions, content calendars, and native ad placement tools.
Target: B2B media companies, agencies running client newsletters, multi-brand publishers. Higher ACV ($200–$500/mo) with lower churn than individual creators.
11. 10. Verdict
The newsletter platform market is large, growing, and increasingly fragmented. Substack created the category but is losing creators to the 10% fee and content moderation stance. beehiiv is growing fastest but expanding into everything (risking bloat). Kit is profitable and bootstrapped but pivoting toward being a platform company. Ghost is principled and open-source but small and technical. Buttondown is delightfully simple but tiny.
The DHH-shaped gap in the market:
- No platform takes the “Basecamp pricing” approach: one price, all features, no per-subscriber scaling, no platform tax.
- No platform takes the “ONCE” approach: buy once, self-host, own forever.
- Every platform is expanding scope (social, e-commerce, podcasts, AI). Nobody is doubling down on being just a newsletter tool that does one thing perfectly.
- No platform has great deliverability and great DX and simple pricing and data portability. You get two or three, never all four.
Best DHH-style plays:
- Flat-price anti-Substack — $29/mo, unlimited everything, 0% tax. Target the 3,000+ creators who left Substack and the thousands more who are considering it. Bootstrappable to $1M ARR with 2,900 customers. This is the highest-conviction play.
- ONCE-style self-hosted — $299 one-time, own your infrastructure. Tiny market but defensible niche with zero ongoing costs. Would be the only self-hosted newsletter tool that isn’t also a full CMS (Ghost).
- Developer-native newsletter tool — API-first, Markdown, CLI, Git workflow. Buttondown with better execution and more polish. Target technical writers and developer advocates.
The exit path: Mailchimp sold for $12B. Kit is at $43.8M bootstrapped. MailerLite sold for $90M. Ghost is sustainable as a non-profit. Buttondown is profitable at $392K. The newsletter platform market rewards both exits and lifestyle businesses. You don’t need VC to win here — in fact, the bootstrapped players have the best unit economics in the entire category.